2026 NRL Draw - Fantasy Analysis
Strategic Team-by-Team Breakdown & Season Planning Guide
Article Introduction
The 2026 NRL draw is now live, and for coaches who take NRL Fantasy seriously, this is where the real work begins.
The draw doesn’t tell you who to pick — it tells you when to pick them, how long to hold them, and when to get out.
Smart fantasy seasons aren’t built on Round 1 hype. They’re built on understanding bye structures, Origin disruption, and how each club
fits into the four major phases of the fantasy calendar.
This article breaks down every club through a strategic lens, not a fan one — identifying where to invest, where to tread carefully,
and where value will (and won’t) exist across the season.
Understanding the 2026 Fantasy Landscape
Before diving into teams, one key clarification:
Origin Majors and Minors remain the same as previous seasons
Major bye rounds only play 13
Minor byes also only play 13
The mistake many coaches make is over-capitalising on teams that appear strong without respecting when those teams disappear from the fantasy calendar. Depth, timing, and exit strategy matter more than raw scoring.
The season can be broken into four functional phases:
Phase 1 - Pre-Season (Lead up to Round 1)
Phase 2 – Early Season (Rounds 1–11)
Phase 3 – Origin Period (Rounds 12–18)
Phase 4 – Run Home (Rounds 19–27)
Let’s break down how each club fits into that framework.
Tier 1 Contenders & Premium Anchors
Brisbane Broncos
Projected Finish: 1st
Brisbane are one of the strongest early-season investments in the competition, with no byes until Round 12.
That makes their core extremely safe through Phase 2.
Best Premium: Payne Haas — unmatched floor, minimal volatility
Best POD: Patrick Carrigan — elite workload, Origin risk priced in
Caution: Origin period — they miss 1 Major and 2 Minors
Brisbane profiles as a load-up early, manage exposure during Origin, reload late side.
Penrith Panthers
Projected Finish: 2nd
Penrith are structurally similar to Brisbane early but far more damaging during Origin.
Early Season: Safe until Round 12
Origin: Miss 2 Majors and 1 Minor — heavy disruption
Best Premium: Nathan Cleary (if fit and priced correctly)
Best POD: Brian To’o
Fringe POD: Isaiah Papali’i (role and value risk)
Penrith premiums should not be over-stacked heading into Origin unless you have a clear exit plan.
Melbourne Storm
Projected Finish: 3rd
Melbourne are deceptively dangerous for fantasy in 2026 — not because of scoring, but because of timing.
No byes until Round 15 — excellent Phase 2 runway
Origin: Miss the final two Major byes
Run Home: Round 24 bye severely limits late-season value
Best Premium: Jahrome Hughes
Best POD: Shawn Blore
Avoid: Stefano Utoikamanu
Storm players are set-and-sell, not season-long holds.
High-Risk, High-Reward Mid-Table Sides
Canterbury Bulldogs
Projected Finish: 4th
Canterbury’s bye distribution makes them awkward but exploitable.
Early Season: Round 2 bye — plan around it
Origin: Miss last two Majors
Run Home: Clean from Round 19
Best Premium: Jacob Kiraz
Best POD: Bailey Hayward
Avoid: Josh Curran
Bulldogs are post-Origin targets, not early anchors.
Canberra Raiders
Projected Finish: 5th
Canberra are quietly one of the best-timed teams across Phases 2 and 3.
No byes until Round 11
Origin: Only miss the last Major
Run Home: Round 26 bye — late-season caution
Best Premium: Hudson Young
Best Cash Generator: Ethan Sanders
Avoid: Matt Timoko
Canberra profiles as a fantasy glue team — not flashy, but structurally valuable.
Cronulla Sharks
Projected Finish: 6th
Cronulla are one of the most fantasy-friendly teams throughout the season.
No byes until Round 7
Origin: Miss only the first Major
Run Home: Clean from Round 18
Best Premium: Blayke Brailey
Best POD: Nicho Hynes
Avoid: Teig Wilton
Sharks players are ideal mid-season stabilisers.
Sydney Roosters
Projected Finish: 7th
The Roosters are structurally awkward in 2026.
Early Season: Round 5 bye — cover required
Origin: Miss first and last Majors
Run Home: Strong from Round 19
Best Premium: James Tedesco
Best POD: Connor Watson
Avoid: Mark Nawaqanitawase
Pick Roosters late, not early.
Dolphins
Projected Finish: 8th
The Dolphins are surprisingly manageable if used correctly.
Early Season: Round 6 bye
Origin: Miss only the first Minor
Run Home: Strong from Round 22
Best Premium: Herbie Farnworth
Best POD: Max Plath
Avoid: Tom Gilbert
A clean post-Origin pivot team.
Declining Value & Structural Traps
Warriors
Projected Finish: 9th
The Warriors are safer than many realise — but not bulletproof.
No byes until Round 10
Origin: Miss only the last Major
Run Home: Solid
Best Premium: Luke Metcalf
Best POD: Leka Halasima
Avoid: Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
Viable mid-tier exposure, not heavy stacking.
Wests Tigers
Projected Finish: 10th
Tigers are usable — briefly.
Round 1 bye (advantageous for selection and ownership percentage benefit)
Origin: Miss only first Major
Run Home: Round 23 bye — poor late investment
Best Premium: Terrell May
Best POD: Kai Pearce-Paul
Avoid: Jarome Luai
Short-term value only.
Rabbitohs
Projected Finish: 11th
Souths are volatile across all phases.
Round 4 bye
Origin: Miss two Minors
Run Home: Clean from Round 20
Best Premium: Cameron Murray
Best Cash: David Fifita
Avoid: Latrell Mitchell
Use selectively — not as a core.
Eels
Projected Finish: 12th
Parramatta struggle structurally.
No byes until Round 12. Great in the early season for value generation.
Origin: Miss 1 Major & 1 Minor
Run Home: From Round 21
Best Premium: Mitch Moses
Best Cash: Jonah Pezet
Avoid: Bailey Simonsson
One-premium maximum.
Titans
Projected Finish: 13th
Titans remain unreliable.
No byes until Round 8. Makes them of genuine interest early.
Origin: Miss 1 Major & 1 Minor
Best Premium: Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
Best Cash: Keano Kini
Avoid: Sam Verrills
Price-dependent only.
Sea Eagles
Projected Finish: 14th
Manly fade badly late.
Round 3 bye. Makes them a bit harder to invest in early.
Origin: Miss second Major
Run Home: Round 22 bye — exit early
Best Premium: Reuben Garrick
Best POD: Jake Simpkin
Avoid: Jamal Fogarty
Not a finals-run team.
Dragons
Projected Finish: 15th
Minimal upside.
No byes until Round 9. Makes them interesting early for value.
Origin: Miss 1 Major & 1 Minor
Best Premium: Toby Couchman
Best Cash: Daniel Atkinson
Avoid: Valentine Holmes
Depth fillers only.
Knights
Projected Finish: 16th
Newcastle are a structural nightmare.
Origin: Miss first two Majors
Run Home: Round 27 bye
Best Premium: Dylan Lucas
Best POD: Kalyn Ponga
Avoid: Dylan Brown
Avoid heavy exposure.
Cowboys
Projected Finish: 17th
Hard fade.
Origin: Miss last two Majors
Run Home: Round 25 bye
Best POD: Jeremiah Nanai
Best Cash: Reed Mahoney
Avoid: Griffin Neame
End-of-season liability.
Final Strategic Takeaways
Fantasy isn’t about picking the best players — it’s about picking them at the right time.
Use the draw properly, and you’re not chasing rank — you’re controlling it.
Early Season: Broncos, Panthers, Storm
Origin Period Winners: Sharks, Raiders, Dolphins
Run Home Targets: Bulldogs, Roosters, Raiders
Structural Traps: Knights, Cowboys, late-bye teams
Written by: Jye Watkins
Title: Founding Owner of Blindside NRL Fantasy Analysis
Date: 1st January 2026